What Can We Expect Next?
Sons of Issachar readers, examining the daily changes in the Strait of Hormuz are probably wondering: what will happen next?
From first principles, I can answer the question, and the answer is – nothing good!
President Trump, as usual, was optimistic when announcing the Memorandum of Understanding in June with Iran (“these are reasonable guys”), but also threw Vice President JD Vance under the bus, by admitting that he would blame JD if the deal fell apart. Trump said in response to a question from reporters:
“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD,” to which he added,”You better be careful JD.”
Reporters thought the President Trump was joking. I’m sure he wasn’t.
President Trump seems to like to create competition between some of his senior personnel and is applying the blowtorch to the competitors for the 2028 presidential nomination: JD and “Little Marco”.
Then, a few weeks ago at the NATO Summit, Trump declared about the Iranian leadership:
“They’re scum, they’re sick people, they’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it…..They violate the agreement every day, they lie, they cheat, they kill people. They’ll never build a nuclear weapon under our deal, but I don’t know if we’re going to have a deal.”
I don’t think I would like to be JD Vance, who is in the unenviable position of trying to pull off a negotiation with “scum”. However, if it’s not a negotiation, then it has to be total war. Are President Trump and his supporters ready to follow through?
There are ongoing skirmishes since President Trump declared the Iranian leadership to be “scum” and now two U.S. servicemen have been killed in Jordan because of strikes by Iranian ballistic missiles and drone strikes. In the latest round of U.S. attacks on Iran, there has been targeting of infrastructure such as bridges, but undoubtedly, there will be further escalation following the deaths of U.S. servicemen. JD may be off the hook for further negotiations in the immediate future.
The Nature of Wars
As I thought about the challenges that face the whole world with the conflict in Iran and the theology of those in charge, I realised that whether he wants it or not, President Trump will get dragged further into a conflict that is difficult to end. While the war has been going on for only 4.5 months (and perhaps only two of those months were skirmishes, when Trump called a ceasefire), it will be difficult for the U.S. to find an off-ramp. President Trump said initially that the war would last four to six weeks. He was dreamin’!
In considering the difficulties facing the world amid the conflict with Iran, I remembered the ideas I have heard over the last few years from the noted journalist Michael Yon. Michael Yon has highlighted the unintended consequences of starting wars and how they tend to expand.
I have followed Michael Yon for a number of years as he has reported from various trouble spots, notably as illegal immigrants poured into the U.S. from South America from Panama through the Darién Gap. Mr Yon has an interesting perspective because he is always inclined to run towards trouble and find out what is happening first-hand. He describes himself as “America’s most experienced living combat correspondent”. I have heard him say that wars tend to grow, and I quote below the following insights about wars from an October 2023 post. Mr Yon wrote:
“Wars habitually do these things:
Grow uncontrollably
Grow unpredictably
Grow wider than expected
Grow longer than expected
Grow more costly than expected
End Unpredictably”
We have seen all these elements in the current conflict with Iran and I have highlighted a few examples of how these principles demonstrate the validity of Mr Yon’s thesis, as the Iran conflict continues.
Wars Grow Uncontrollably/Unpredictably
Since the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by the heads of state on 17 June 2026 (President Trump signed the agreement in the Palace of Versailles - perhaps an unfortunate location), the situation has looked continually shaky. The MoU was designed as a 60-day framework where the main elements were: a ceasefire, and opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while permanent terms were negotiated. However, the agreement lasted barely three weeks, and during this time there were some “tit -for-tat” strikes. At the NATO Summit on 8 July, President Trump declared that the ceasefire was over and that he was “done with negotiations” but perhaps others could continue. The Iranians then announced on 13 July that they would no longer comply with the MoU, accusing the U.S. of violating the agreement.
I suppose that this could have been anticipated from first principles, but even more so when the fundamental philosophies of the groups involved differ to such a degree. President Trump always believes that there is a deal to be done, and that ultimately everyone will back self-interest. The self-interest of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is not financial, it is personal. These guys are interested in staying in power and preventing the angry mobs from stringing them up. They will never give in because their lives and well-being depend on staying in control, and having a nuclear weapon - and they have the real life example of North Korea to back up their strategy.
Interestingly, the war that began on 28 February has just kept cycling: blockade, deal, collapse, blockade again. Eventually, there must be a conclusion - a nuclear strike?
Wars Grow Wider Than Expected
Probably the most dramatic and possibly unanticipated consequence of the U.S. and Israel starting the conflict with Iran is the Iranian strikes on the Gulf states and then the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. It seemed to be a surprise to the Gulf states and the U.S. This is a reminds us that even the best plans can go astray because of the law of unintended consequences. The Strait of Hormuz, which none of us had ever heard about before the war, is not only front and centre but remains an ongoing source of global economic difficulties because what was previously a waterway that had free access is now being controlled with threats to shipping. There is no easy solution to this problem and the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a pressure point in the short to medium term.
Wars Grow Longer Than Expected
Vietnam and Afghanistan are great examples of wars continuing for years beyond what was anticipated by those who launched them. The U.S. ended being engaged with Afghanistan for almost 21 years, and then left in humiliation as Joe Biden pulled out the U.S. military and left billions of dollars of equipment when the U.S. withdrew. There was a similar humiliation when the U.S. fled Vietnam at the end of April 1975 with helicopters evacuating the U.S. Embassy. In total, the U.S. was engaged in Vietnam for almost 20 years.
Wars Grow More Costly
The costs of wars are always underestimated. With the current conflict, initial costs were estimated at US$11.3 billion but the latest cost estimates have increased to >US$100 billion. Who knows what the eventual costs will be?
Brown University has provided some helpful information about the escalation in costs of conflict. These are the estimates provided about the financial and human costs of some recent wars:
“The cost of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and elsewhere totals about $8 trillion. This does not include future interest costs on borrowing for the wars.
38 million people have been displaced by the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, and the Philippines.
The costs of caring for post-9/11 war vets will reach between $2.2 and $2.5 trillion by 2050 - most of which has not yet been paid.
Post-9/11 war veterans are suffering a mental health crisis. At least four times as many active duty personnel and war veterans of post-9/11 conflicts have died of suicide than in combat.”
Wars End Unpredictably
The video of desperate Afghans clinging to departing U.S. aircraft (see video below), reminds us how even the best laid plans can go astray. The Russians also learnt this to their cost in the nine years they fought there from 1979 to 1989.
Signs of the End Times?
Sons of Issachar readers trying to put all this together, to understand the signs of the times, may find the video of Joel Richardson in conversation with Chad Robichaux on The Resilient Show (April 2026) of interest. The YouTube link is provided below.
Mr Richardson outlines some of the key points about the mirror images of Islamic and Christian theology together with explanation of some key biblical verses and the video also covers issues around Islam and Israel.
If you don’t have time to view the entire 2 hours (and the discussion is very discursive), below is a short summary of some of the points that struck me.
Five Key Points from Joel Richardson: What’s Actually Unfolding in Israel & Iran
Islamic and biblical eschatology are mirror images of each other. Richardson argues that the Islamic end-times narrative is strikingly similar to the biblical one but inverted — “the same story flipped on its head”, with the figure Christians would identify as Antichrist cast as the awaited Muslim deliverer. This is the core thesis of his book The Islamic Antichrist, and it means the two prophetic frameworks are on a collision course.
Islamic end-times prophecy is being actively weaponized. Figures like the Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin are deliberately stoking apocalyptic Islamic expectations for geopolitical ends — meaning prophecy isn’t just being fulfilled passively, it’s being wielded as a strategic tool.
October 7th as a prophetic preview. Richardson describes the Hamas attack as “a microcosm, a snapshot of what the prophets describe at the end of the story” — a foretaste of the final assault on Israel that Scripture depicts in the Book of Deuteronomy, and a warning of the depth of hatred that will drive it. It has been shocking to see the rise in antisemitism across the world, in countries that previously were supportive of Israel.
Turkey, not Iran, is the power to watch in Ezekiel 38 and 39. Richardson identifies Turkey as the leader of the Gog and Magog coalition that invades Israel, with Iran (Persia) as a secondary partner. He sees Turkey’s rise as a regional superpower as the pieces aligning in real time — which makes Iran’s current degradation prophetically significant, since it shifts the regional balance toward Ankara.
Modern Israel remains central to God’s covenant plan — and we are near the end. Addressing the hard questions head-on (Is modern Israel biblical Israel?), Richardson defends the continuity of the Abrahamic covenant, the land, and the people, and argues that fulfilled prophecy (such as Psalm 22) proves Scripture’s reliability. His sober assessment of the times: we may not be far off from the tribulation Jesus foretold.
Final Thoughts
In the video, Joel Richardson was asked about his thoughts about how to cope and be resilient in today’s world where there are so many challenges. I thought that his answer was helpful and I have transcribed it below to help readers put all the current events and those to come, into perspective.
Joel: So, let me just say that life is a battle. I don’t care if you’re a Christian or if you’re not a Christian — life is a battle. But for me personally, everything that we’ve talked about — the fact that Jesus is coming back... He came the first time, and He came back from the dead — is proof that He’s coming back. And when He comes back, He’s going to restore all things. He’s going to put an end to war. You know, the prophets speak of the time when nation will not take up sword against nation any longer. There’ll be no longer oppression; there’ll no longer be sickness, anxiety, depression, PTSD, divorce, addiction, overdose. You know, all of these things are coming to an end.
And the New Testament drips with expectation — and continues to drip with expectation — and it refers to this vision that the entire Bible proclaims as the anchor of hope for our souls. For me personally, that vision — this is why it’s so important to me: I personally, I wrestle with depression; I always have. What gets me through, what gives me the resilience, the perseverance, the long-suffering — is I keep my eyes fixed on the day of His appearing. And that’s biblical hope. The gospel is hope for the poor, for the suffering of the earth. And I believe that it’s the message that, again, every man, woman and child — Christian, Muslim, Jew, atheist, Buddhist, Hindu — whether they realize it or not, [longs] for the age to come that the prophets described. And so for me, it’s the gospel that gives me hope.