THE UKRAINE-RUSSIAN CONFLICT – WHAT’S NEXT?

Winner for military-industrial-congressional complex – loser for the rest!

Russia has loomed large on the US political horizon for some time. It is interesting that the Democrat Party in the US has continued to try to falsely link Donald Trump with Putin. The Democrats successfully ran a campaign trying to tie Trump with Putin, using false information provided to the campaign by the former British spy Christopher Steel – see this link . Ukraine became part of the scenario after Trump’s “perfect phone call” to the Ukrainian President in 2019 when he highlighted the dismissal of the Ukrainian prosecutor at the behest of then Vice-President Biden. The Democrats tried to impeach Trump in relation to the phone call and incredibly, managed to get some mud to stick, despite the “perfect phone call”. Despite being completely cleared by the Mueller investigation, almost 50% of Americans still believe that Trump worked with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential election - see this link. Russia was successfully portrayed by the Democrats as an enemy of the US and so with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was little question about the need to send billions of dollars in financial support for Ukraine. This is despite the acknowledged extent of Ukrainian corruption. Now the West is trapped in a terrible war that looks like expanding and depleting the West of defense resources.

For some time, I have wanted to do an in-depth (but hopefully short!) report for my Sons of Issachar Newsletter readers about the Russian-Ukraine conflict. I have read extensively about the war over the last 18 months and noted the scales being strongly weighted by the mainstream media in favor of Ukraine. Ukraine and the “brave” President Zelensky have been  lauded for their defense of freedom while President Putin and Russia are sinister players, out to bring nuclear conflict to the world. This may be correct but I suspect that the situation could be slightly more nuanced. Here is a map that shows Russian vs Ukrainian territory changes in a recent report from the BBC .

Figure 1. Military Control of Ukraine from before Russian Invasion to Today - source - BBC.

The UK and US seem intent on prolonging a war that already has an estimated 400,000 Ukrainian fatalities and now the new UK Defense Minister, Grant Shapps has indicated that the UK wants to send troops to the Ukraine. In a report in ZeroHedge, Shapps said,

“I’m keen to see other British companies do their bit as well by doing the same thing. So I think there will be a move to get more training and production in the country,”. ..

This prompted a response from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who currently serves as the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, suggested that British soldiers training Ukrainian troops in Ukraine would be legitimate targets for Russian forces, as would German factories producing Taurus missiles should they supply Kyiv. Medvedev said "These morons are actively pushing us towards World War Three,"

As the conflict drags on, we in the West are being manipulated to enmesh ourselves more deeply into what seems to be an unwinnable conflict, as billions of dollars are sent to a corrupt Ukrainian administration. The only winner is what I heard described recently by Colonel Douglas McGregor as the “military-industrial-congressional complex”. There are so many vested interested at the heart of Western governments and the defense industry that any politician who wants out will be quickly de-selected by their political party.

The situation is extremely serious for us all and there are sinister players operating behind the scenes as we are urged to “Stand with Ukraine”. While I wanted to write something to help readers gain an overview of the situation, I thought to myself – how can an old bloke sitting in an office in the Snowy Mountains write anything credible about the situation compared to journalists on the ground?

Then I discovered that it was almost impossible to obtain an alternative viewpoint. I finally decided that I would try to put some thoughts together because of the opportunity to talk to Dr Michael Sutton, who was on my podcast last week, and who has returned recently from Russia. At least we can have a first-hand account from someone with no axe to grind.

I can’t claim that I am an expert but I have tried to assimilate the most credible material that I have read and listened to and provide a context and overview for my readers.

Do We Really Want to Stand with Ukraine?

I was always suspicious from the first moment about the almost universal support for Ukraine and the vast sums of money that have disappeared – probably into Swiss and Cayman Islands bank accounts – since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Support for Ukraine has come from both sides of politics in the West and if you question the narrative about Ukraine, you are accused of being a fascist.

A few weeks ago, when I ordered a water filter from a local Australian company, I was surprised to see a “I stand with Ukraine” banner and a yellow and blue flag. Perhaps these people were Ukrainian but probably they had succumbed to the relentless media narrative.

A clever Australian political commentator remarked a few years ago about a former Australian Prime Minister, now Australian Ambassador to the US – “Whatever Rudd is for, then I know that the right approach is to be against it”. Ambassador Rudd is a strong supporter of Ukraine and in favor of sending billions of dollars to the corrupt politicians there. So – at least based on this important qualifier, I know that the correct opinion is to be against this largesse, without knowing any more!

The mainstream narrative has been relentless and mostly goes as follows: Putin is a brutal dictator who has invaded Ukraine without provocation and all freedom-loving people need to support him. Not only that, we need to send hundreds of billions of dollars in cash and supplies off to President Zelensky. This is despite the long-standing acknowledgment that Ukraine is one of the most dishonest countries on the face of the planet and one of Joe Biden’s son Hunter’s main sources of unearned “pocket money”. The aid from the US to Ukraine includes US$25 billion in non-military support that includes funds for a designer knitwear company – see this link.

Here is a recent snapshot of the billions in financial support provided by the West to Ukraine. I suspect that it is an underestimate.

Figure 2. Aid to Ukraine (in billion Euros) as of 31 May 2023 - from Statista

Zelensky’s Clever Appeals to the West

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, formerly an actor and comedian thrust into the spotlight, undoubtedly with sinister backers behind him, has managed to finesse clever speeches to the US Congress, the UK and Canadian Parliaments, and even the Australian Parliament. He has a standard operating procedure for all his speeches to politicians: appear in battle dress, use emotive language and find relevant historical incidents in the country to which he is speaking, to bring elected representatives onto his side – so that they send cash and equipment. Who even knows where this ends up?

Australia, which couldn’t defend itself even from an attack by an army of wombats, sent off Bushmaster trucks after Zelensky’s appeal.

Zelensky’s speech format is always the same: cite some terrible event in the nation that he is seeking money from and then pull the heartstrings. It sounds very credible unless you have an ear tuned to what is likely to be a great deception. Here is just a section from his speech to the US Congress via video, in March 2022:

“Ladies and gentlemen, friends, Americans, in your great history you have pages that would allow you to understand Ukrainians. Understand us now when you need it. Right now, when we need you right now. Remember Pearl Harbor. Terrible morning of December 7, 1941, when your sky was black from the planes attacking you. Just remember it. Remember September 11, a terrible day in 2001 when evil tried to turn your cities, independent territories, into battlefields. When innocent people were attacked, attacked from air. Just like no one else expected it, you could not stop it. Our country experiences the same every day right now, at this moment, every night for three weeks, now. Various Ukrainian cities... Russia has turned the Ukrainian sky into a source of death for thousands of people….”

Zelensky had a similar pitch to the UK Parliament in February 2023 where he made the connection with Churchill and said:

“There is an armchair in the War Rooms, the famous Churchill armchair, and a guide smiled and offered for me to sit down on this armchair, from which orders were given. And he asked me how did I feel.
I said that I suddenly felt something, but it is only now that I know what the feeling was, and all Ukrainians know it perfectly well, too.
It is the feeling of how bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.”

Zelensky always makes his speeches dressed in military clothing with a green Tshirt, despite him never having faced a battle in his life. Clearly, there is a powerful group, including many in the UK Parliament and US Congress, that is backing him and sending billions his way. It is evident that that defense contractors that supply equipment have been very influential. Zelensky is no supporter of democracy and has suspended elections and cracked down on opposition voices. The West may unwittingly be supporting a new potential dictator.

Peace or Nuclear Conflict?

There were credible reports early in the conflict that the then Israeli Prime Minister had negotiated a possible peace settlement with Russia and Ukraine. This was quickly given the thumbs down by the UK and US  - see this link and so the losers now are the young men on both sides.

The total casualty toll could be well over 1 million dead and wounded in the 20 months of the war. Of course the threat of Russia pressing the nuclear option button hovers over the conflict and this week Sam Faddis noted in his substack – see below

Russia Holds Nationwide Nuclear Drill - Bumbling Toward The Apocalypse

that:

 “The Russians are preparing for Armageddon”. He writes:

“Russia will hold nationwide drills simulating widespread nuclear attacks on the country. That is happening today. It is happening in response to the growing fear in Russia of an attack on that nation by Western powers including the United States.”

Colonel Douglas McGregor has been a voice of reason during the conflict and I have included a recent interview with him that provides some useful context.

Colonel McGregor said that the Biden administration is trying to make exiting support for Ukraine very difficult for a future administration. He described the conflict as a “destructive and useless proxy war against Russia” which those supporting the war want to continue as long as possible. He said that the war was a “cash cow” for some of the wrong people in Washington DC and he described this group broadly as the “military-industrial-congressional complex”. Colonel McGregor believes that there are three options for the future in relation to Ukraine:

1. The Russians take more territory and reach Kyiv;

2. A US financial collapse ends financial support for the war;

3. The Europeans break away from the US and fail to continue financial support for Ukraine.

Background to the Current Conflict

Ukraine has a horrifying recent history and was targeted by Stalin in the 1930s for their grain production which he could convert into foreign currency. This resulted in the starvation of millions – see this link. There was strong support in Ukraine for the Nazis in their fight against the Red Army in 1941- see this link-  and this included the deportation of Ukrainian Jews. Such Nazi sympathy seems to continue today with the notorious Azov battalion. Putin has referred to the fight against Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” in a speech broadcast before the Ukrainian invasion in February 2022.

As indicated in the interview with Dr Michael Sutton in this newsletter, the shadow of the German invasion of the Soviet Union during the ”Great Patriotic War” still looms over the country today.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine charted an independent course and was encouraged to give up their nuclear weapons by President Bill Clinton. Pro-Russian presidents were elected but revolutions in 2004 and 2014 led to overthrow of the pro-Russian governments.

It is now widely acknowledged that the CIA was behind the February 2014 “Maidan Revolution ” that deposed the pro-Russian president, Victor Yanukovych – see this link. A pro-Western president, Petro Poroshenko was “elected” in May 2014. This is the period when Joe Biden was Obama’s “point man” to Ukraine and when Hunter Biden was able to collect large bags of cash. Huge sums of US aid poured into the country and famously, Joe Biden threatened the withholding of US$1 billion in aid unless the government fired the Ukrainian prosecutor, who was then investigating Burisma, the energy company that had his son Hunter on its Board. The US basically called the shots in Ukraine and clearly was behind the election of new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in 2019.

In the chaotic world of Ukrainian politics, after starring in an Ukrainian television satire called “Servant of the People”  in which the character he plays accidentally becomes president, life imitated art and Zelensky (himself a comedian) was elected president in April 2019 on a platform of improving relations with Russia.

Zelensky indicated that he wanted Ukraine to join NATO and this was the final straw for President Putin, who had been repeatedly assured over the years that NATO would not expand eastwards. Of course, nearly all former eastern bloc countries have joined NATO, and to Putin this looks like a threat to Russia.

You can understand how the Russians viewed Zelensky’s proposal if you equate it to how the US would react if Canada decided to invite China to bring Chinese defense systems into Canada, which would be seen as a direct threat to US security.

Putin had repeatedly warned the West but it appears that some key players in the West wanted to provoke a conflict. Now they have one and undoubtedly the Russians have a much stronger appetite for a prolonged war than does the West, which eventually will run out of political support for the billions of dollars that are being sent to Ukraine and then who knows where?

President Putin

Now, you can’t claim that Putin is a saint. Any opponent in Russia is quickly dispatched and I gained better understanding of Putin and the extent of Putin’s reach when, a few years ago, I read Bill Browder’s remarkable 2014 book Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man’s Fight for Justice – see this link.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and “privatisation” of the economy, billions of rubles were on offer and President Yeltsin and then President Putin were able to offer cronies access to state enterprises. Bill Browder went to Moscow as an investor and started the Hermitage Fund which was very successful until he ran into problems from the Russian authorities in 2009. After a long battle, Browder was expelled from Russia and his Russian lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was imprisoned because he uncovered a $230 million taxation fraud. Magnitsky was tortured and eventually died in prison. Bill Browder fought for justice by getting the US Congress to pass the Magnitsky Act to sanction Russian officials who are human rights violators. The book provides an understanding of Putin’s reach and influence.

Clearly, Putin takes no chances with any opponents. The most recent adversary who died a violent death was Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as “Putin’s chef”, and head of the Wagner group of mercenaries. He died in a mysterious plane explosion after falling out with Putin. Just today Putin has hinted that the crash was self-induced by drunk and drug-affected passengers playing on board with hand grenades. It’s certainly a plot for a great movie. Who know what the truth is?

The list of Putin’s opponents who have died or suffered near-death experiences is long and is outlined in a recent article by Radio Free Europe. There have been poisonings, shootings, falls from tall buildings, explosions, “suicides”, death in prisons and “accidents”. Deaths have also occurred outside Russia, particularly mysterious falls from buildings.

President Putin is a “take no prisoners” type of guy and has all the tools of secret state security services at his call. He has been in power now for almost 25 years and has taken steps to eliminate any opposition. His decision to invade Ukraine makes sense from a Russian viewpoint and he had previously warned the West about the consequences of NATO’s eastward expansion at the Munich Security Conference in 2007.

The more I read about Putin, the more I realized that he will not give up his desire to control Ukraine and secure Russia’s western borders. The Russians have encountered more Ukrainian resistance than was expected. Nonetheless, Russia has great energy resources, excellent weapons manufacturing capacity and will take a long-term view. The only potential unknown is Putin’s health as there have been persistent rumours of serious medical issues.

The Future

When I talked this week to Dr Michael Sutton, he highlighted the impact that is still evident today of the “Great Patriotic War” with the Nazis in the 1940s, where it is estimated that 25-26 million Russians died – see this link. Russians have a great capacity to weather hardship, are patriotic and prepared for a long-term struggle to reunite the “motherland”. Western sanctions appear to have been largely ineffective.

As I pondered all these issue, I came across an article this week from the eminent historian, Victor Davis Hanson. He has written a helpful historical overview about Russia, which is worthwhile reading and concludes that, “the entire region is an historical Gordian Knot of poorly understood but ancient intertwined and competing threads—one that may risk being cut by a Russian nuclear sword. “

It is hard to know what may come next in this terrible conflict but cutting off Western funds to Ukraine, as many politicians in the US are advocating, seems to be  the best chance of avoiding an escalation of the conflict and the use of nuclear weapons.

Dr Michael Sutton’s Recent Visit to Russia

With this background for my readers, I talked to Dr Michael Sutton in the last few days because he recently spent five weeks in Russia and his evaluation is that the country is thriving. Dr Sutton has written an interesting article titled: “Letter from the Forbidden Land”, published recently by the Brownstone Institute – see this link. Here are a couple of the more interesting quotes from the article:

Does the West Really Care About Ukrainian Freedom?

“The West doesn’t really care about the freedom of Ukraine, as they are happily and gleefully removing our freedoms from Washington to Canberra. We in the West face a relentless, persistent, and comprehensive assault on our civil liberties, our freedoms, our beliefs, our faith, and our very existence from a virulent form of neo-fascism that has emerged like a cancer out of our faltering democracy.”

Future American Betrayal

“It is my belief that at some point, Ukraine will be betrayed by America. There are echoes of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Spanish Civil War in this current malaise, and the ghosts and demons from those dark periods have been awoken from their slumber. If history is anything to go by, the West will not ‘Stand with Ukraine’ forever, and just like South Korea, and South Vietnam, Ukraine will face the cold reality of American strategic realignment.”

Russians Are Fighting for Their Homeland

The Russians are fighting for what they believe is their homeland, and this is what the West doesn’t understand. In Donbas, they do not believe it is anything other than Russian territory. It is, in fact, not a war against the Ukrainian people, but against American imperialism. When the most recent conflict began, more Ukrainians fled to Russia than to the West. In fact, the largest community of Ukrainians in the world is in Russia. 

“The Civil War in the eastern part of Ukraine has its roots in the US-backed coup in 2014 when the democratically elected Ukrainian government was toppled and America moved in. There has been civil conflict since 2014, and the death toll and psychological damage in the Donbas region has been catastrophic, but the Western media made sure none of it made front-page news for almost a decade. This is America’s Ukraine, and Kiev knows it all too well”

Below you can listen to the 55 min interview with Dr Sutton.

Conclusions

I thought that it was important for Sons of Issachar readers to gain an in depth understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in as short an article as possible. This ended up being longer than I had hoped!

In prophetic interpretations of biblical end-times, many commentators believe that Russia is a key player. However, the key contested city is Jerusalem and we need to continue to examine what is happening in Israel, which is surrounded by many enemies, including Iran which continues to threaten to annihilate it.

I trust that you have a few more insights after reading the newsletter as it is important to remember that Jesus’  final instruction to His disciples shortly before His crucifixion was “do not be deceived” (Matthew 24:4). There is media and government deception to lead us into wars that destroy economies and provide tools for further government control. Undoubtedly President Putin is a dictator who has enriched himself and his cronies since he took control of Russia almost 25 years ago. However, we need to understand the context that led to the Russian invasion. It is complete folly to continue to spend billions trying to prop up a corrupt Ukrainian regime in a conflict that risks nuclear war.

As is evident from the West’s folly in the $3 trillion war in the Middle East and also in Vietnam, the only winners are the bankers, lobbyists and arms manufacturers.