A Week Is A Long Time in the Middle East

I have been gradually recovering from the slow haemorrhage that I wrote about in my recent newsletters and I have realised that it will be a long process for my red blood cells to be fully restored. I am resting up and taking some time to think about world affairs, and the challenges we will face in 2025.

Most recently I have turned my attention to Syria and so this week I thought that I would try to bring my Sons of Issachar readers some thoughts and those of those writers and commentators whom I consider the best informed. I was reminded this week of the old saying, attributed to former British Prime Minister, Harold Wilson: “a week is a long time in politics”. A similar saying could be formulated for recent events in the Middle East. These have including the surprise Hamas attack from Gaza in October 2023, exploding two way radios in Lebanon, and now the sudden downfall of the Syrian president Bashar-al-Assad. This latter event surprised everyone and clearly will have a range of unintended consequences with further instability in the region.

A Christmas Break and Recent Podcast

I may have a break from writing over the Christmas-New Year period but anticipate that there will be some challenges to update readers about as President Trump’s inauguration approaches on the 20th January 2025. As the reality of his plan to deport millions of illegal immigrants comes into close view, I anticipate that there will be substantial unrest in the US, fostered by collectivist agitators. So - I will probably keep an eye on things and write a few newsletters about issues that I think are of importance.

This week, I was interviewed by Graham Hood and John Larter who have a podcast called Club Grubbery. Here is a link to the interview which covers animal and human health issues. Their byline is: You just couldn’t make this stuff up.

The Challenge of Syria

While our backs were turned from the Middle East, with most people focused on Donald Trump taking a presidential victory lap, which strangely included centre stage at the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, the Assad regime in Syria suddenly collapsed and the Assad family hot footed it to Moscow. Reports are that the Assad family owns 20 units in a luxury skyscraper complex in central Moscow and so it seems as though there will be some choice in the family’s living arrangements, and apart from the cost of security guards, the family may not suffer too much financial hardship.

Syria has been one of the centres of turmoil in the Middle East for the last century and more recently, was a base for ISIS, until President Trump shut down the Syrian ISIS operation. Millions of Syrian refugees have poured into Europe and since 2011, 14 million Syrian refugees have left Syria. This changed the demographics of Europe and the United Kingdom, as well as providing a base for the expansion of Islam. Remarkably, there were reports this week that Muhammed is now the most popular boy’s name in the UK. Gradually, Islam is overtaking Christianity as the dominant religion in Europe and the UK, with reports indicating the progress of Islam through former Christian places of worship:

“An international think tank warned in a report that multiculturalism is feeding radical Islam in the U.K., pointing out that in the past couple of decades close to 500 Christian churches have closed in London alone while 423 mosques were built.

"British multiculturalists are feeding Islamic fundamentalism. Above all, Londonistan, with its new 423 mosques, is built on the sad ruins of English Christianity," the Gatestone Institute argued in a report released Sunday.”

It does seem that the conflict in Syria has had a major impact on British and European culture, and various jihadist attacks from radical Islamists have been a consequence of migration of Muslims from Syria and other Middle East countries.

In reading some background material about Syria and President Assad, I was surprised to discover that President Assad and his British-born wife received a royal welcome in 2002 at Buckingham Palace with Queen Elizabeth. This regal blessing was orchestrated by the then British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Blair claimed that the young Assad was a moderniser, probably in a similar way that Blair saw himself.

However, gradually President Assad showed that he was a ruthless dictator, suppressing any opposition and promoting his Alawite sect, a minority division of Shi’a Islam. According to Britannica – “Alawites reject claims that they consider ʿAlī an incarnation of God. They affirm the unity (tawḥīd) of God but are said to believe that God has revealed himself several times in a triune form. Alawites accept the Pillars of Islam (the five duties required of every Muslim), but they interpret them in ways that may not satisfy orthodox Muslim criteria. For example, Alawites hold a symbolic interpretation of the hajj and do not perform a literal pilgrimage to Mecca. Among the holidays they observe are Eid al-Ghadir, a traditionally Shiʿi holiday celebrating Muhammad’s appointment of ʿAlī as his successor, and Christmas, a traditionally Christian holiday celebrating the birth of Jesus (who in Islam is both prophet and messiah).”

Asssad was closely aligned with Iran and of course (because of access to Syrian ports for the Russian navy), he had strong support from President Putin. The Ukraine war and then the conflict in Lebanon and Gaza resulted in Assad’s forces receiving less support from both Russia and Ukraine, with the resultant Assad regime’s sudden collapse.

As I was thinking about the dramatic changes in Syria, I remembered that in April 2017, President Trump famously ordered an attack on a Syria air base, informing Chinese President Xi over dessert at Mar-a-Lago. This was supposedly in response the President Assad’s use of chemical weapons.

Syria has been unstable for a prolonged period and Assad has been propped up by Russia and Iran. Once this support waned, the game was up. Personnel in the Syrian armed forces were paid as little as US$30 per month and so, when the anti-Assad forces (which included ISIS-aligned Sunnis, Kurds and Druze), received support from Turkey and advanced on Damascus, the Assad family left for Moscow. There is now a power vacuum but it is unlikely that anything good will occur for Syrians.

Below are some selected passages from a few articles that I found helpful this last week in relation to the conflict in Syria.

From Joel Skousen at worldaffairsbrief.com on 13 December 2024:

Syria Now a Nightmare of Extremist Factions

“Syria has now become a nightmare of extremist Muslim factions. And I don’t believe a word about al Jolani claiming that he is going to be tolerant of other opposition forces. That’s not the jihadist way—though he has been giving orders like this to appear tolerant.

It’s interesting that the first announcement al Jolani made was that he was not going to attack the Syrian government institutions (except, of course, those security forces that were guilty of all that torture that went on for decades). This means that whoever is backing Jolani somehow wants Syria to not descend into anarchy, and if they do succeed in that even to a modest extent, the bill for rebuilding Syria will once again fall on the US and international community.

But the likelihood of al Jolani or anyone else being about to control all the disparate terrorist elements inside Syria are almost nil. But without Assad, Iran will lose Syria as an infiltration route for arms and supplies to Hezbollah.

It’s only because of the Israeli attacks on Iran, Hezbollah, and Iran’s militias in Syria that Iran was not able to reinforce Assad’s ragtag, conscription army, which gave up without a fight in the face of a well-planned terror assault through Aleppo, Homs and Hama during the last 8 days.

The Russians couldn’t help either, as the Ukraine war forced Russia to withdraw most of their air assets from Syria, as well as some of the air defense units. And, Russia is showing no sign of getting back into Syria. Putin is in the process of evacuating the rest of his technicians and security personal and equipment……

As more and more evidence has surfaced about the thousands of opposition militants who were tortured and killed by the government, I can only say that I still think Bashar al Assad was too mild mannered a man to have personally overseen or ordered these crimes.

As a British trained physician married to a British wife, he was thrust into the presidency by the death of his father and the equally sudden death of his older brother, killed in a car accident, who was supposed to be the heir apparent. His father Hafez al Assad did run an extensive torture system, which had even done contract torture for the CIA.

Thus, it is certain that Bashar inherited his father’s ruthless Deep State which was not about to allow the mild mannered Bashar al Assad to overrule them. Of course, being relatively weak, he didn’t even try, but went along in order to enjoy the luxurious lifestyle of any head of state. When CNN toured his personal residence after he fled, they criticized the remnants of luxury clothing and automobiles that he and his wife had amassed, and openly ascribed this to corruption.

In contrast, I don’t notice CNN ever criticizing all the excess luxury and corruption enjoyed by V. Putin in his gold plated Sochi palace or Xi Jinping luxurious digs. Nor, did they comment on the fact that the house was utterly stripped bare by the opposition of everything of value, except the paper scraps on the floor, and how that somehow paints the populace as greedy and corrupt as well.

I’m not excusing Assad or his wife in total, even as I don’t think he was the brutal monster the media is portraying. The Assads could have at least resigned early on when they realized they couldn’t change the father’s system, but they were too weak for that. I doubt they found out about all the evils in government around them all at once, or ever in total, being isolated from the inner workings of the dark side. But the longer you stay, the more they become enticed by the trappings of privilege and luxury and the less it bothers them when painful choices arise……

The US globalists had an agenda of creating havoc in the Middle East and driving millions of Muslims into exile that would be pointed toward Europe—to forever change the culture there.

In summary, for now Israel and the US Deep State have the upper hand in the Middle East, but it’s a tenuous military position as they have both engendered a lot of hatred among the Muslims and fomented a radical Muslim revolution they certainly will not be able to contain. This is a recipe for continued future warfare, which Trump will now have to deal with, like it or not.”

In essence, Joel Skousen is highlighting the fact that there is no good news coming out of Syria despite the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad. This view is supported by Leo Hohmann, a writer whom I have quoted from in the past in relation to various activities of the globalists. He has written an interesting piece last week about the coming dangers from the new groups seeking to control Syria and the US view which is essentially anti-Russian.

Syria Under Control of Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood?

“Let’s face it: The U.S. didn’t support the rebels who overran Syria because they thought Assad was too brutal of a dictator. They supported them because it was yet another way to deal a black eye to Russia.

Instead of Russia and Iran running the show in Syria, now we face the very real possibility that Russia and Iran will be replaced with Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood…..

Even some of the most sincere Christian supporters of the state of Israel are celebrating the fall of Assad. However brutal of a dictator he was, at least Assad, being from the Alowite Shia sect, was one of the religious minorities in Syria. As such, he protected other minorities in the country, which includes Christians.

Now, with the Sunnis in control of the country, we should expect nothing other than oppression, if not open slaughter, of Syrian Christians. That’s what Sunni Muslim regimes always do when empowered. That’s their history. Read the works of historian Raymond Ibrahim and you will get acquainted with this history. A good place to start would be to study the history of the Ottoman Empire and what they did to the Armenian Christians.

For a peek at who HTS and its comrades really are, take a look at this 3-minute video, where they say openly that their next goal is to take over Jerusalem.

The West and Israel are playing with fire. They think they can use one portion of Islam to punish the other portion. They think the portion backed by Iran is “more evil” than the portion backed by Turkey. I fear they are in for a rude awakening.

If the West thinks Iran was the biggest threat to the Middle East, and Assad was the nastiest brutal dictator, they are about to learn what real brutality looks like.

The American Russophobc mentality has served as a blinder to those who conduct U.S. foreign policy. We could have made peace with Russia after the Cold War. Instead, we expanded NATO right up to the edge of Russia’s border and placed Western troops and weapons in those former Soviet-bloc countries. Then we militarized Ukraine, placing more sophisticated missile systems there, and told Ukraine it was OK to fire them into Russia proper. Imagine if Russia had done that in Mexico? Trained Mexicans to fight Americans, then sent them super-sophisticated missile systems and told them to go ahead and start firing them into Texas. How would the American government react to that. Oh, but it gets worse. In our hypothetical scenario, when the American government finally gets tired of being attacked by Mexicans armed with Russian weapons, we invade Mexico to stop it, only to be called a perpetrator of “naked aggression” by the Russian government and its media propagandists.”

The situation in Syria is a global power play and the neocons in the US seem to be in favour of extending the global conflict. However, it is worthwhile remembering that a religious conflict is at the heart of the problems facing the Middle East. The Sunnis and the Shias hate each other and they both hate the “Christian” West and most of all the Jews. As territorial solutions are sought, the religious foundations of ongoing conflicts seem to be ignored by those who seek Middle East peace.

Syria and US Intelligence Failures

Sam Faddis is an ex-CIA man who writes knowledgeably about the Middle East and I will conclude the newsletter this week with a section from a recent article of his about intelligence failures related to the fall of Assad, and the central role of Turkey, a NATO ally.

Flying Blind – Another Intelligence Failure In Syria

“Assad has fled Damascus. Syria has fallen to Islamic extremists backed by Turkey. What is coming will be another Islamic Caliphate and a bloodbath. The Kurds will be the first target of the new radical state that is emerging.

And, we received effectively no warning this was going to happen.

Turkey is a NATO ally. We are lashed up with the Turkish armed forces and intelligence agencies across the board. We have a significant military and intelligence presence in Iraq, next door to Syria. We have hundreds of troops and intelligence personnel inside Syria itself.

We were blindsided nonetheless.

The President of South Korea just staged what amounts to an abortive coup in which he tried to impose martial law. The nation was plunged into chaos. The ripple effects are still being felt.

We received no warning.

South Korea is a close ally and has been for 75 years. We have tens of thousands of military personnel there. We are in close contact with the South Korean government and its intelligence agencies all day every day.

We found out about the imposition of martial law by the South Korean President when he announced it to the world.

These gross intelligence failures are not aberrations. They are the new norm. We hear a lot about the involvement of American intelligence agencies like the CIA in American domestic politics. We should. The Intelligence Community should not be within ten miles of our political process.

We hear a lot less about another massive problem. Our intelligence agencies have lost their edge. They are no longer capable of doing their jobs. They have become bloated, overly bureaucratic edifices that generate process, suck up billions of dollars, and put very, very few points on the board.

What I hear from individuals inside the CIA is shocking. Operations have virtually ground to a halt. Sources are almost non-existent. Chiefs of Station are chosen based on their adherence to the new dogma of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, not operational accomplishment. Managers and leaders are terrified of taking action against officers who do not produce for fear of being accused of violating someone’s rights or disturbing their “work life balance”…..

The Biden administration is the worst in American history. What it has done in terms of national security is almost incomprehensible. All across the globe alliances we built over the span of a century are in tatters. Enemies are emboldened. Weapons of mass destruction are proliferating. Our own defense establishment is degraded and unable to even begin to handle the multitude of threats that have emerged.

Russia is threatening nuclear war. It has declared formally that it considers itself to already be at war with the West.

The Chinese are on the march all across East Asia. Their preparations for actions inside the United States including the takedown of our critical infrastructure are intensifying by the day. Their threats against Taiwan are escalating rapidly.

The Iranians either already have nuclear weapons or are about to acquire them. The entire Middle East is going up in flames. What is already a regional war is spiraling out of control.

Iranian assassination teams are active on U.S. soil and Tehran has formally declared its intention to assassinate U.S. officials involved in the killing of General Soleimani.

Our borders are wide open. Every terrorist group on the planet has been given carte blanche to move operatives, weapons, and explosives onto our soil.

We desperately need intelligence on these and a multitude of other threats. We need to be able to see what is coming and to take steps to protect the nation. We do not have that intelligence and we show no signs of taking steps to acquire it.”

The world is in a precarious situation with the neocons in Washington seeking to stoke the fires of various international conflicts. Biden’s minders have sought to provoke Russia by allowing Ukraine to fire missiles into Russia.

In the Middle East, the US wants to have a foot in every camp. In relation to Israel, the administration seems to be riding both horses in dealing with the Israel-Hamas conflict.

One would imagine that much could change in the next months, as the Trump administration attempts to change foreign policy in Washington. However, the permanent administrative state (“the Deep State”) will do its utmost to resist the Trump doctrine of "peace through strength” and “America First”.

Has World War III Begun?

Against this background, I commend a recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Yaroslav Trofimov. The article is titled: Has World War III Already Begun? Mr Trofimov highlights a new “free world” axis, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. This “free world”—is Lavrov’s “Orwellian term for the axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.”

“As Syrian rebels approached Damascus last weekend, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s main Arab ally, as a minor episode in a planet-wide struggle.

The West, Lavrov said, clings to America’s decaying hegemony but is inexorably losing ground to the “free world”—his Orwellian term for the axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. “The fight of these two worlds, one phasing out and another emerging, is not going without clashes,” he remarked at a conference in Qatar.

…. the world is increasingly split into two rival camps. With Russia’s war on Ukraine nearly three years old, the Middle East ablaze on multiple fronts and tensions building up in East Asia, conflicts once thought to be disconnected have merged into what could be the opening shots of a third world war.”

Mr Trofimov points out that three of the four “revisionist autocracies” possess nuclear weapons (Russia, China and North Korea), and Iran may only be moments away. There has even been recent discussion by Trump’s advisors about a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. A false move could result in World War III, in much the same way that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in the summer of 2014 resulted in a world war within just a few months.

As we approach Christmas and a time of peace and goodwill toward mankind, there are various sinister forces at work seeking to provoke international strife (or a new pandemic) to bring about a global government. We must not forget that the World Economic Forum wants us “to own nothing and be happy” by 2030. These folks are serious!

However, I remind myself that God has a plan for His Son to return to bring righteousness, justice and peace to the earth. So, as we examine all the areas of current conflict, it is wortwhile remembering that we can have confidence in God’s plan. John the Apostle saw the heavenly vision of this time ahead:

“And I heard a loud voice from heaven saying, “Behold, the tabernacle of God is with men, and He will dwell with them, and they shall be His people. God Himself will be with them and be their God. And God will wipe away every tear from their eyes; there shall be no more death, nor sorrow, nor crying. There shall be no more pain, for the former things have passed away.” (Revelation 21:3-4).

Some Conclusions

We live in uncertain times but we can have confidence in God’s eternal plan. While we need to keep attention on Washington, Beijing, London, Brussels and other world capitals, it is worthwhile also keeping an eye on Jerusalem. Jerusalem is the location that the Old Testament tells us is God’s own city - “the city where I have chosen for Myself to put My name” (1 Kings 11:36). This is the city where Jesus will return and from where He will rule. It is important to keep the eternal city of God in our sights. The prophet Zechariah wrote about 2,500 years ago:

“This is what the Lord says: 'I will return to Zion and dwell in Jerusalem. Then Jerusalem will be called the faithful city, and the mountain of the Lord Almighty will be called the holy mountain.” (Zechariah 8:3).

It is worthwhile remembering the advice given by God in Psalm 2, written by King David around 3,000 years ago:

“Now therefore, be wise, O kings;
Be instructed, you judges of the earth.
Serve the Lord with fear,
And rejoice with trembling.” (Psalm 2:10-11).

This seems sound advice for Sons of Issachar readers in the days ahead.